Virtual Flaneurism

Moments ago I stumbled upon the Wikipedia entry for Black Swan Theory, a concept developed by Nassim-Nicholas Talleb to explain the human response to high impact, unexpected random events (the "appearance" of a "black swan"). The most common cultural response to such events, he claims, is to retroactively and incorrectly reinterpret their occurrence - which he claims is rare and random - as having been predictable. I find this absolutely fascinating. Tallib also concocted a list of ten principles that, if followed, will allow a societal unit to most efficiently weather "Black Swan events".

This theory makes sense to me just examining one of our most recent American tragedies: the terrorist attacks occurring on September 11th. To most of us, these attacks seemed to come out of nowhere - a majority of Americans considered attacks on American soil unimaginable. On September 12th, not only was this belief proven false, but belief in our omnipotence seemed naive - America was of course susceptible to attack, and we "should" and "could" have known that an attack was coming.

The consequences of upturning an ideology is what I find particularly intriguing about Talleb's theory. The American response to finding out we are not untouchable has been unfortunately extreme: anti-Islamic sentiment is at a high, the travel industry functions at a paranoid near standstill, and we are led to feel constantly in danger despite the fact that September 11th was nearly ten years ago. By believing we could have predicted 9/11, we have stereotyped Muslims as dangerous, airlines as unsafe, and our world as constantly under threat. Talleb contends that societal responses to Black Swan events are generally this hyperbolic and destructive and should be avoided if possible.

The theory's argument is not that we can avoid events from occurring, but prepare our society not to view them as earth-shattering and requiring some sort of (unrealistic) rationalization - we can keep them as "White Swans", rather than "Black". The "White Swan" here would simply have been one of expectations: not that we expected to be attacked, but that we fathomed it possible. I'd argue that entertaining the possibility of attack could have prevented this horrible tragedy from being a leaping off point by which some Americans have tried to vilify the entire Muslim world. I'd also argue that Americans in a "White Swan" mindset might be those who are more rational about and receptive to the possibility of a mosque being built in lower Manhattan.

Anyway, I'd like to read the book, if nothing else. Feel free to disagree in the comments, or make fun of me for pretending to understand an entire theory of human behavior simply from reading a Wikipedia page.

Also, chastize away if this post has TOO MUCH GOD DAMN TEXT.